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Geopolitics & Middle EastA Shin Bet inquiry into suspected foreign funding has reshaped the debate over Israel’s October 27 election, and the coalition math that follows, according to journalist Amit Segal’s daily newsletter.
The Israeli journalist Amit Segal has become the go-to newsmaker and analyst of the U.S.-Israel relationship and his daily newsletter, It’s Noon in Israel, is a must-read.
Israel’s October 27 election looked, a day earlier, like the year of record Arab turnout. By Thursday, according to Amit Segal, chief political commentator for Channel 12 News and Israel Hayom, it risked being remembered instead for alleged foreign interference. Central Elections Committee Chairman Justice Noam Sohlberg has asked the Shin Bet to investigate what his letter to agency chief David Zini calls “serious suspicions of improper influence through foreign funding.”
Channel 12 reported that the Shin Bet suspects Qatari money was funneled into boosting Arab turnout, partly through channels previously used to move terror funds. Segal stresses that Arab citizens are full citizens exercising a democratic right to vote, and that equal votes bring equal scrutiny.
Segal argues that several factors surely raised Arab participation, including soaring crime in Arab towns, renewed unity in the Joint List and general dislike of the current government. But he says no sector in Israeli history has gone from the lowest turnout to the highest in a single election, and the jumps exceeded most forecasts, which saw Arab turnout reaching the mid-60s. The Joint List’s own polling put it at 61 percent against a stated target of 70.
Turnout in Selected Arab Towns
2022 vs 2026 · figures as cited by Amit Segal
Umm al-Fahm
Hura
Rahat
Ra’am
Segal reports that a man caught with envelopes of cash was a senior figure at Siyua 48, the charity behind Ra’am, and notes that Ra’am’s Negev strongholds posted some of the sharpest jumps in turnout.
Joint List
Segal says the Joint List was already hard for much of the Israeli public to accept, citing election-night statements by one of its MKs and reported chants at party headquarters. In his view, the funding allegations make that worse.
Gadi Eisenkot
Eisenkot’s plan relied on Yashar winning more seats than Likud, with Ra’am making up the difference to reach 61. Segal argues the allegations now cloud the legitimacy of that route, and raise the political cost of collaboration even without a shared government.
Benjamin Netanyahu
Even if he received no Qatari cash, Segal writes, Netanyahu is the political beneficiary. He also notes the irony that Arab party leaders and at least one senior Likud figure credited Itamar Ben Gvir with driving Arab voters to the polls.
Segal says the opposition’s change bloc (48 seats) and the Arab parties (19 seats) are enough to replace the Knesset speaker, Likud’s Amir Ohana, and take control of legislative procedure, which he says would have been Eisenkot’s first move after next week’s swearing-in. With the allegations, he expects a public-diplomacy cost for doing so.
He considers it extremely unlikely that the entire election would be invalidated, given time constraints. With the Arab route to the prime minister’s office looking treacherous, he sees only two realistic outcomes.
Path One
A Unity Government
Segal suggests Netanyahu could try to peel off Naftali Bennett or Avigdor Liberman, or offer Eisenkot a unity government on more Netanyahu-friendly terms. He adds that Bennett’s and Liberman’s pledge not to rely on Arab parties may now be firmer.
Path Two
New Elections
Segal says another vote may tempt Netanyahu, who would enter with a surprise win’s momentum, with splinter parties wiped out and Arab turnout likely lower. He cautions Likud against overconfidence: even at 2022 Arab turnout levels, he says, the bloc would still fall short of 61.
In Segal’s reading, the decision now rests with Netanyahu, who is expected to explore his options before resorting to another campaign.
About the Author
Amit Segal is chief political commentator for Channel 12 News and Israel Hayom, and anchor of Meet the Press on Channel 12. He is the author of The Story of Israeli Politics (Hebrew, Russian, Arabic) and A Call at 4 AM (English). His daily newsletter, It’s Noon in Israel, is being republished by the Washington Free Beacon through the end of the Israeli elections.
Source: “It’s Noon in Israel: The Stolen Election?” by Amit Segal, October 29, 2026, via the Washington Free Beacon. This page is an FFN summary and analysis, not a reproduction of the original.
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