Deyr 2026: ICPAC Forecasts Above-Normal Rains for the Horn of Africa, Driven by an Emerging El Niño

A 90% probability of above-normal rainfall for parts of southern Ethiopia, central Somalia and northeastern Kenya headlines the region’s October–December outlook — a season of promise for farms and pasture, and of real flood risk for vulnerable communities.

On 18 August 2026, the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) released its October–December (OND) 2026 seasonal rainfall forecast, pointing to a high likelihood of above-normal rainfall across much of the Horn of Africa. For a region where the Deyr rains carry the difference between a fed household and a hungry one, the outlook released at the 74th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF74) is being read closely — for its promise, and for its warnings.

The forecast singles out several zones where confidence in above-normal rainfall is particularly strong. Parts of central and southern Somalia are expected to see more than 400 mm of rainfall over the Deyr season, and the onset of the rains is expected to arrive early or close to normal timing across many parts of Somalia, eastern Kenya, southern Ethiopia and most of Tanzania.

📊 The Numbers, Zone by Zone

ICPAC’s forecast divides the region into probability zones, each carrying three figures: the chance of Above-normal (A), Normal (N), and Below-normal (B) rainfall. The pattern is unmistakable — probability of above-normal rainfall rises sharply the closer a zone sits to the equatorial belt running through Somalia, southern Ethiopia and northeastern Kenya.

Beyond rainfall, ICPAC’s outlook flags another factor worth watching: above-normal temperatures are expected across much of the region, with the highest probabilities forecast for eastern Kenya, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti and large parts of Somalia — a combination of wetter and warmer conditions that will shape everything from crop cycles to disease patterns.

🌊 What’s Driving the Forecast

ICPAC attributes the outlook to two ocean-driven climate signals now aligning. El Niño has developed in the Pacific and is expected to strengthen through the remainder of 2026, while the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is forecast to move into a positive phase. Historically, this pairing has been associated with wetter-than-usual OND seasons across the Horn of Africa — the same combination behind past above-average Deyr and short-rains seasons in the region.

More rainfall does not mean only opportunities. — FFN Somaliland Desk, on reading the Deyr 2026 outlook

The Deyr rains are essential — for agriculture, pasture regeneration, water resources and the livelihoods of millions of pastoralist and farming families across Somalia and the wider Horn. But heavy or unevenly distributed rainfall also raises the risk of flooding and flash floods, particularly in low-lying and already-vulnerable areas — a pattern the region has lived through before, including during past El Niño-influenced seasons that brought both bumper pasture and destructive floods within the same three months.

🌾 What This Means, Practically

Today’s information → tomorrow’s preparedness. Together, we search for the rain with you.

Mr. Mawlid Musa Ibrahim

Prepared & submitted by · Abrahamic Movement
Vice President of Agriculture, Israel–Somaliland Friendship Association (ISFA)

Mawlid Musa Ibrahim works at the intersection of faith, diplomacy and agriculture in the Horn of Africa. As Vice President of Agriculture for the Israel–Somaliland Friendship Association (ISFA) and a member of the Abrahamic Movement, he focuses on climate-resilient farming, cross-community cooperation and early-warning awareness for Somaliland’s farmers and pastoralists — work that informed this briefing on the Deyr 2026 outlook.