In Lebanon, the civil war is no longer a feared reality, but a specter invoked when needed. Whenever the issue of disarming Hezbollah is raised, the drawer of intimidation is opened, and the same old record is played: “Beware the fitna.” As if the Lebanese are minors, or as if the state is a crime, or as if illegal weapons are the sole guarantor of civil peace. This is not analysis, but blackmail.

Scaremongering about civil war today is the last line of defense for a reality that can no longer be sustained. Those who wave it around do not possess a state-building project, but a project of obstruction. They sow fear because they are incapable of convincing people of the utility of weapons outside legitimacy.

Lebanon 2026 is not Lebanon 1975. No front lines, no opposing militias, no open treasuries to fund internal fighting. Society is economically shattered, yes, but it is also exhausted to the point of rejecting any bloody adventure. Even the environments that were once used as fuel for wars now seek medicine, electricity, and a loaf of bread — not frontlines.

So who will fight whom? And which street is ready to turn into a battlefield? These are questions that the promoters of fitna flee from, because the answer demolishes their entire narrative.

There is the more dangerous dimension: this scaremongering is not innocent, nor merely local. There are those who do not want Lebanon to escape the circle of chaos. Regional states and powers see it as a bargaining chip, not a homeland. For them, the persistence of weapons means the persistence of influence, and any true stability means the loss of position. Therefore, the threat of war is amplified whenever talk approaches sovereignty.

The Lebanese have paid the full price — from their economy and dignity to the future of their children. No one buys the discourse of terror anymore. The truth they try to bury has become clearer than ever: no civil war on the horizon. There are only those who fear losing their influence, so they wave a war that will not happen.