The world is entering a potentially exceptional phase of El Niño, with climate models indicating that the 2026 event could become unusually strong. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported that El Niño has developed in the tropical Pacific and is expected to strengthen, increasing the likelihood of heatwaves, droughts, intense rainfall and other extreme weather events around the world.

The consequences of such a powerful El Niño will not be uniform. Instead, the phenomenon could produce two very different faces of climate disaster: excessive dryness in some regions and excessive rainfall in others. These contrasting effects could place enormous pressure on vulnerable communities, agriculture, water supplies, ecosystems and national economies.

The tropical Indian Ocean and countries surrounding it are particularly important because El Niño interacts with another major climate driver — the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Current seasonal projections indicate the development of a positive IOD alongside El Niño. The combination can substantially alter rainfall patterns across the Indian Ocean basin and East Africa.

In parts of South and Southeast Asia, El Niño is commonly associated with reduced monsoon rainfall and increased heat and drought risk. India is already facing concerns over below-normal September rainfall following a rainfall deficit in August 2026, with agriculture and water resources particularly vulnerable.

At the same time, the Greater Horn of Africa can experience the opposite extreme. WMO and regional climate authorities expect the final quarter of 2026 to be warmer and wetter than normal across much of the region as El Niño strengthens. October–December rainfall is especially important to Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia, where it contributes a substantial proportion of annual rainfall. Excessive rainfall can therefore rapidly transform a climate benefit into a humanitarian emergency through flash floods, river flooding, landslides, crop destruction, livestock losses, displacement and disease outbreaks.

This is the paradox of El Niño: rain can become a disaster when there is too much of it, while the absence of rain can become an equally devastating disaster elsewhere.

A drought-stricken community may welcome rainfall, but if the rain arrives in extremely intense bursts, it may run off rapidly rather than replenish groundwater — and can destroy farms, roads, bridges and homes instead of relieving them.

The potential consequences extend far beyond weather. Extreme climate conditions can disrupt food production, livestock, fisheries, water availability, energy generation, transportation and international food markets. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warns that El Niño-related climate hazards pose significant risks to food security, particularly for farmers, pastoralists and fishing communities whose livelihoods depend directly on climate-sensitive natural resources.

The situation is particularly serious because the world is already experiencing a warmer climate. Recent research suggests that human-caused warming may be contributing to stronger El Niño variability, although scientists continue to debate the magnitude and mechanisms of that relationship.

Therefore, the emerging El Niño should not be viewed simply as a meteorological event. It should be treated as a global risk multiplier. Governments, humanitarian agencies and communities in vulnerable countries need to strengthen early-warning systems, prepare emergency food and water reserves, protect critical infrastructure, improve flood-control measures and support climate-resilient agriculture before the most severe impacts arrive.

For the Horn of Africa, including Somalia and Somaliland, preparedness is particularly urgent. The region has experienced repeated droughts and humanitarian stresses, meaning that extreme rainfall could follow years of weakened livelihoods and depleted household resilience. The objective should not simply be to ask whether El Niño will bring more rain or less rain, but where, when, how intensely and for how long that rain — or lack of rain — will occur.

The coming months could therefore demonstrate the two faces of a powerful El Niño: drought and heat on one side, floods and destructive rainfall on the other. The greatest danger is not El Niño alone, but the interaction between a strong climate oscillation, a warming planet and vulnerable human livelihoods.

Early warning must therefore become early action. If governments and communities act before the extremes arrive, the same climate information that warns of catastrophe can become a powerful tool for saving lives, protecting livelihoods and reducing disaster losses.