President Donald Trump participates in a signing ceremony for a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas to end the war in Gaza during a summit of world leaders at the Tonino Lamborghini International Convention Center in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, Monday, October 13, 2025. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)
Gulf States Issue Ultimatum on Gaza Reconstruction
𧡠Breaking Thread Analysis
Laura Cellier shared exclusive intelligence from Gulf sources revealing a major rift between the Trump administration and its key Arab allies over Gaza’s reconstruction strategy. What follows is a comprehensive breakdown of her thread and its implications for Middle East peace.
The Core Tension: Containment vs. Exclusion
1Trump’s Strategy: “Trump and Witkoff want to keep Turkey and Qatar where they can see them in Gaza, rather than have them try to rearm Hamas by the backdoor”
2Gulf Pushback: “…but the Saudis and the Emiratis think this strategy is doomed to fail”
The fundamental disagreement is stark: Washington wants to include potential spoilers to monitor them; Riyadh and Abu Dhabi want them excluded entirely.
The Trump administration’s logic is containment through visibility β bring Turkey and Qatar into the reconstruction process where their activities can be watched and controlled. The Gulf states see this as naive, believing these actors will undermine peace regardless of oversight.
The Trust Deficit: Who’s Sabotaging Peace?
According to Gulf intelligence sources, the distrust extends beyond Turkey and Qatar to include Egypt β traditionally one of America’s closest Arab partners. This three-way suspicion reveals how fractured the Arab world remains on Gaza policy.
Qatar
Long-time Hamas mediator and financier. Gulf states believe Doha will continue supporting Hamas politically and financially regardless of any reconstruction role. Past ties to Muslim Brotherhood movements fuel suspicion.
Turkey
Ankara’s past support for Hamas and Islamist movements makes Gulf states fear it will “rearm Hamas by the backdoor” under cover of humanitarian or reconstruction efforts. Erdogan’s rhetoric hasn’t helped.
Egypt
Gulf sources accuse Cairo of wanting Gaza to remain unresolved to maintain its relevance as an indispensable mediator. Without the Gaza file, Egypt becomes a secondary regional player.
π° The Financial Ultimatum
“Unless Hamas is fully disarmed as per the Trump plan, the Saudis and Emiratis will walk away and won’t contribute a single Dirham to reconstruction”
This isn’t a negotiating position β it’s a line in the sand. No disarmament = No money = No reconstruction.
The Hamas Disarmament Debate
3Egypt’s Position: “The source says Egypt keeps insisting it’s unrealistic to try to remove Hamas entirely because it still enjoys popular support”
4Gulf Response: “Again the Emiratis and the Saudis don’t buy it and suspect Egypt is trying to keep Gaza unresolved to serve its own interests”
This exchange reveals a crucial policy split:
Two Competing Theories
Egypt’s Realist View
Hamas cannot be fully eliminated because it maintains genuine popular support among Palestinians. Any plan ignoring this reality will fail. Accommodation and gradual transformation is the only viable path.
Gulf’s Hardline View
Hamas must be completely disarmed and dismantled. Egypt’s “realism” is actually self-serving β Cairo benefits from perpetual crisis that requires Egyptian mediation. Total disarmament is achievable with sufficient international pressure.
Who’s right matters enormously. If Egypt is correct, the Trump plan is doomed from the start. If the Gulf states are correct, Egypt is actively sabotaging peace for its own strategic interests.
The Battle for Regional Leadership
5Saudi Ambition: “Saudi Arabia would like to take a lead role in the process, host summits in Riyadh and sideline Egypt, Qatar and Turkey”
6Egyptian Response: “Egypt fiercely opposes this. Without the Gaza file, Cairo is increasingly irrelevant. That’s why MBS and MBZ stayed away from Sharm El Sheikh”
This is about more than Gaza β it’s about who leads the Arab world. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) sees Gaza reconstruction as an opportunity to assert Saudi leadership and host major diplomatic summits in Riyadh.
Egypt views this as an existential threat. Cairo has been the traditional hub of Arab diplomacy for decades. Without the Gaza file, Egypt becomes “increasingly irrelevant” β explaining why President Sisi so fiercely defends Egypt’s mediator role.
The fact that both MBS and UAE’s Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ) boycotted the Sharm El Sheikh summit was a deliberate snub β signaling they don’t accept Egyptian leadership on Gaza.
Saudi Arabia
Wants to host summits, lead reconstruction, and establish itself as the indispensable Arab power. Has the money, wants the influence. Sees Gaza as a test case for Vision 2030’s regional ambitions.
UAE
Aligned with Riyadh in challenging Egyptian leadership. Takes hardest line on Hamas disarmament. Willing to deploy financial leverage to force compliance with Gulf preferences.
The Trump-MBS Meeting: Everything Hinges on This
The stakes couldn’t be higher for the upcoming Trump-MBS meeting. The Saudi crown prince needs to convince Trump to:
- Abandon the “keep them where we can see them” strategy for Turkey and Qatar
- Take a much tougher line on Hamas disarmament with no compromises
- Sideline Egypt as the primary mediator and give Saudi Arabia the lead role
- Accept that no Gulf money will flow until Hamas is completely disarmed
Trump faces a classic dilemma: accept Saudi conditions and lose Turkish/Qatari cooperation, or stick with his inclusive approach and lose Gulf financing.
Without Saudi and Emirati money, Trump’s vision of a rebuilt Gaza β new infrastructure, housing, jobs, economic development β is financially unviable. But excluding Turkey and Qatar might drive them into active opposition, potentially rearming Hamas through back channels.
What This Reveals About Middle East Politics
Key Takeaways from Cellier’s Thread
Trust Is Absent
Arab states deeply distrust each other’s motives on Gaza. Qatar suspects Saudi ambitions, Egypt fears Saudi displacement, everyone questions everyone else’s true agenda.
Money Is Power
Gulf states are leveraging their financial resources as political weapons. “No disarmament, no Dirhams” gives them effective veto power over reconstruction plans.
Regional Leadership Is Contested
This isn’t just about Gaza β it’s about whether Saudi Arabia or Egypt leads the Arab world. MBS sees this as his moment to eclipse Cairo’s traditional dominance.
Competing Theories of Victory
Egypt believes accommodation of Hamas is necessary; Gulf states believe total disarmament is achievable. These incompatible visions cannot both be right.
America Is Caught in the Middle
Trump must choose between pragmatic inclusion (his instinct) and hardline exclusion (Gulf demands). Both paths carry serious risks of failure.
The Bottom Line
Laura Cellier’s thread exposes the fragility of the Gaza peace process. Even before reconstruction begins, the coalition supporting it is fracturing along multiple fault lines:
- Strategic β containment vs. exclusion of potential spoilers
- Financial β Gulf states wielding reconstruction funds as leverage
- Political β Saudi-Egyptian competition for Arab leadership
- Tactical β realistic accommodation vs. complete Hamas elimination
The Trump-MBS meeting will reveal whether the president prioritizes his pragmatic instincts or Gulf financial backing. Either choice involves accepting significant risks.
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