There is no reliable, current, nationwide percentage showing exactly how many Pakistani madrasas are linked to militant groups. The figure most often cited is 10–15%, but it comes from an older government estimate, and the sources that repeat it warn that the underlying data were unreliable. [DTIC]

That distinction matters. A statistic that begins as a guess can harden into a “fact” through repetition, and it can then shape policy, media coverage and public attitudes toward millions of students and thousands of institutions. This report looks at what the evidence does and does not support.

What the evidence says

• A Pakistani Ministry of Education estimate said roughly 10–15% of madrasas might have links to sectarian militancy or terrorism. It was described as speculative, not the result of a complete, verified census. [DTIC]
• The International Crisis Group reported the same 10–15% range but stressed that the Pakistani government itself considered its statistics unreliable. [Crisis Group]
• Brookings summarized the estimate as roughly 10–15% affiliated with extremist religious or political groups, while cautioning against treating the whole sector as militant. [Brookings]
• A different survey found that 18% of madrasas acknowledged affiliations with sectarian organizations, while only a few acknowledged links with militant jihadi groups. [PIPS]

The word “linked” hides a lot

“Linked” can mean anything from a funded training camp to a single graduate who later joined an armed group. Treating these as equivalent produces misleading numbers. Select each category below to see what it can and cannot show.

A madrasa whose former student joins a militant organization is not necessarily itself a militant institution. Equally, a madrasa that spreads sectarian hate speech may provide no military support, yet it can still help create an environment in which violence becomes easier to justify.

Are madrasas the main source of militants?

Research on militants themselves does not show that madrasas are the principal recruiting ground. A study cited by Pakistan’s National Counter Terrorism Authority (NACTA), which looked at militants in Swat, found that madrasa attendance was not a significant predictor of recruitment. Family, social networks and personal inclination also mattered. [NACTA]

A diverse sector, not a single institution

Pakistan’s madrasas differ widely in curriculum, management, sectarian affiliation, funding and relationships with political or militant organizations. Most provide religious instruction and social services. Many offer free or low-cost education, food and accommodation to poor and orphaned children, and in some areas they fill gaps left by weak state schools. Evidence also warns against treating madrasas as the sole or primary cause of militancy. [DTIC]

At the same time, studies identify a smaller but significant problem: institutions that spread intolerant views or serve as recruitment environments. [Brookings] This is why researchers call for a middle course between blanket blame and blanket denial.

Muslims are the main victims of the violence

Any discussion of extremism must remember who suffers most. One study covering 1979–2024 found that 86.3% of recorded Islamist terrorist attacks and 88.9% of related deaths occurred in Muslim-majority countries. The figures do not excuse attacks on non-Muslims, but they show why terrorism cannot be framed as a war between Muslims and the rest of humanity. [Fondapol]

How scholars answer extremist claims

Islamic scholars argue that extremist movements misuse religious texts, replace legal qualification with personal authority, and declare other Muslims unbelievers so that violence against them appears permissible. The Amman Message, backed by leading Muslim scholars, condemned terrorism and said fatwas used to justify it violate the basic principles of Islam. [Amman Message]

It also recognized followers of several Sunni, Shia, Ibadi and Zahiri schools as Muslims and prohibited declaring them apostates, rejecting the notion that armed individuals decide who belongs to Islam. [Brookings] In a country where sectarian violence has targeted Shia, Sunni, Barelvi, Deobandi, Ahmadi, Christian, Hindu and other communities, teaching this principle is a matter of public safety. Background on the declaration is available on Wikipedia, and the Marrakesh Declaration similarly calls for protection of the rights of religious communities. [Marrakesh Declaration]

What madrasa reform can look like

Pakistan’s National Action Plan identified madrasa registration and regulation as part of counter-extremism policy. Official planning also included curriculum review, financial oversight and removal of hate material. [NACTA Annual Report 2018] Experts say reform works best as partnership rather than collective blame, and that curriculum problems are not limited to madrasas: social studies, history, Pakistan Studies and Islamic Studies in the wider education system also need review. [Peace Direct]

Teacher and imam training matters as much as curriculum. Madrasa teachers need tools to discuss real grievances, from Kashmir and Palestine to Afghanistan and corruption, without endorsing violence, and to teach students how to check who issued a ruling, what evidence supports it, and what it means for innocent people. Students also need livelihood options such as vocational skills, scholarships and career guidance, because recruiters exploit poverty, isolation and the search for status.

Approaches that can backfire

The careful conclusion

The safest factual statement is that older estimates suggest roughly 10–15% of Pakistani madrasas may have had some connection to extremist or militant religious-political networks. That figure is uncertain, it is not a verified current national statistic, and “connection” spans everything from ideological influence to direct militant affiliation.

Pakistan’s task is to support madrasas that teach mercy, justice and lawful disagreement, reform institutions that spread hatred, and hold criminal actors accountable without stigmatizing an entire sector. The aim is not to remove Islam from education but to ensure religious education cannot be hijacked by those who recruit young people into violence.

KR

Khurram Ali Raza

Writes for Faith & Freedom News on religion, extremism and public policy.