
Two Years and a Day: A Turning Point in Gaza
The first phase includes the release of all Israeli hostages and the withdrawal of Israeli troops to agreed-upon lines within Gaza. A signing ceremony is expected at noon Cairo time, with President Trump slated to arrive by the weekend. If all proceeds as planned, the hostages will be home early next week.
1The Nature of the Deal
2Diverging Priorities
Hamas pushed for the short-term ceasefire.
Israel insisted on the long-term cessation: disarming and dismantling Hamas, introducing an international stabilization force, and establishing non-Hamas governance under U.S. oversight.
The PA, Europeans, and moderate Arab states secured an Israeli pledge to reopen political talks toward a peace horizon.
3Why Israeli Pressure Mattered
4Regional Leverage and U.S. Backing
5Israel’s Political Dilemma
Prime Minister Netanyahu faced a stark choice: accept a U.S.-backed, regionally supported deal that mandates Hamas’ dismantlement but also affirms that:
- Gaza will not be annexed
- Gazans will not be expelled
- Peace talks with the PA may resume
- A revamped PA could eventually govern Gaza
This may fracture Israel’s current coalition and prompt Ben-Gvir and Smotrich to exit in protest.
6The Hamas Question
Hamas will never willingly disarm. The coming phase — determining who disarms Hamas and how — remains the biggest unknown.
Critical questions remain:
- Will Israel, Arab states, or an international force take the lead?
- Will Hamas surrender all weapons or only heavy arms?
- Or will it simply “pivot” to a political role while maintaining control behind the scenes?
7The Real Breakthrough
This deal was made possible by a rare combination: Israeli military grit and U.S. diplomatic muscle applied to Qatar and Turkey.
Whatever one’s politics, this would mark a historic diplomatic success for the Trump administration — arguably Nobel-worthy if it endures.
8The Narrative War
9Implementation Won’t Be Easy
10Cautious Optimism
If it holds, the Trump-brokered Gaza Agreement could reshape not only Israel’s security landscape but also the entire post-October 7th order of the Middle East.
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