A new geopolitical chapter is unfolding in the Middle East, and at the heart of this transformation lies an unlikely partnership between two global heavyweights: Donald Trump and China. In an incisive Forbes analysis, Wesley Alexander Hill argues that while critics predicted chaos from the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, what’s emerging is a more stable, energy-abundant, and diplomatically connected region.
“U.S. President Donald Trump’s teasing about the possibility of more countries joining the Abraham Accords is one of the most important, and least appreciated, developments from the U.S.-Israeli-Iranian war,” Hill writes. “The expansion of the accords could lead to a less radical and more stable political environment and increased energy availability worldwide.”
Hill notes that Iran’s hegemonic ambitions, including its “ring of fire” strategy (using proxy forces to encircle Israel), were significantly blunted. The fall of the Assad regime in Syria, the dismantling of Iranian proxy networks, and ongoing international scrutiny of Iran’s nuclear ambitions have isolated Tehran.
“While Cassandras prophesied destabilization of the Middle East, the expansion of the accords could lead to a less radical and more stable political environment and increased energy availability worldwide. There may be a welcome change in the global balance of power, as China and Russia recognize that the United States is not kidding.”
This dramatic turn of events, Hill argues, is an ironic consequence of Iran’s ill-fated attempt to derail the Accords – specifically, to prevent Saudi Arabia from joining – by supporting the October 7th, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel. The Abraham Accords, a cornerstone of the first Trump administration’s foreign policy, aimed to normalize relations between Israel and various Muslim-majority nations, fostering economic ties and external influence to untangle the complex Israeli-Palestinian dynamic. Iran’s disruption was both ideological and strategic, threatening its “ring of fire” proxy strategy designed to encircle Israel.
Regardless of whether one attributes this outcome to sheer luck or strategic genius, Trump’s “splendid little war” appears to have achieved significant results. Iran’s military and nuclear capabilities have been diminished, its proxy networks largely dismantled, and the friendly Assad regime in Syria is gone. Crucially, the global economy dodged a recession as the Strait of Hormuz remained open, potentially with China’s quiet assistance. America’s geopolitical and energy sector standing has been bolstered, with Brent oil prices hovering at a robust $67 a barrel at the time of Hill’s writing. While questions linger about the complete success of the strikes on Iran’s nuclear program, the impact on its patrons and neighbors is undeniable.
Far from collapsing, the Abraham Accords are expanding—with potential new signatories including Azerbaijan, Syria, and Central Asian states like Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. These predominantly secular Muslim nations share strong ties with Israel and vast energy reserves.
“Azerbaijan, a majority Shi’a Muslim secular state that already has an exemplary relationship with Israel, makes the perfect antithesis to Iran,” Hill explains. Its inclusion in the Accords would significantly benefit European energy markets, while also acting as a strategic check against Iranian influence in the Caucasus.
Meanwhile, Syria, under its new leadership, may embrace the Accords as a way to shift away from the “Axis of Evil” and rehabilitate its image and economy. Azerbaijan’s behind-the-scenes role in fostering talks between Israel and Turkey only strengthens its position as a regional bridge-builder.
In a surprising twist, China—long seen as Iran’s strategic ally—chose economic self-preservation over ideology, opting not to intervene in the U.S.-Iran conflict. Instead, Beijing seems poised to support the Abraham Accords indirectly, aligning with Arab states for energy access and regional influence.
“China opted for low energy prices amid fears that further escalation would damage its economy,” Hill observes. “Now, in the aftermath of Trump’s victory and China’s difficult decision, the Middle East is in flux.”
This pragmatic shift could help China counter criticism over its treatment of Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang by aligning with more moderate Muslim nations. It also opens new avenues for Chinese investment in countries like Syria and Azerbaijan, where infrastructure and energy development are high on the agenda.
The Abraham Accords have evolved from mere diplomatic agreements into a new coalition of reliable partners for the United States. Israel, once a regional pariah, now serves as a litmus test for constructive engagement with the U.S. For Muslim-majority states, maintaining peace with Israel is increasingly viewed as a gateway to economic prosperity and geopolitical relevance.
“This strategic vision positions the Abraham Accords as a cornerstone of U.S. foreign policy,” Hill concludes, “leveraging Israel’s role to foster a network of allied states, thereby enhancing American influence and energy security on the global stage.”
The Abraham Accords are evolving beyond mere peacekeeping in the Middle East. They are poised to become a coalition of nations with whom the United States can reliably engage. Within this framework, Israel serves as a cornerstone, but also a litmus test: a Muslim country’s ability to maintain harmonious relations with Israel is now seen as indicative of its potential for constructive engagement with America. This strategic vision positions the Abraham Accords as a vital component of U.S. foreign policy, leveraging Israel’s role to cultivate a network of allied states, thereby enhancing American influence and energy security on the global stage. Ironically, Hill concludes, this profound strategic shift is more keenly recognized in Beijing and Tehran than in Washington, D.C.
For the full article, visit: Forbes – China and Trump’s Abraham Accords Remake Middle Eastern Energy
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