The U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) has released a groundbreaking policy update that establishes a clear link between religious freedom violations and the risk of mass atrocities. The report, titled “Preventing Mass Atrocities Targeting Religious Communities,” cross-references the top 30 countries most at risk of mass atrocities with USCIRF’s 2025 Annual Report recommendations.

The research utilizes data from the U.S. Holocaust Museum’s Early Warning Project, which identifies countries where new mass killings are most likely to occur. The correlation is striking: more than half of the 30 highest-risk countries are identified in USCIRF’s recommendations for designation as Countries of Particular Concern (CPC), placement on the Special Watch List (SWL), or designation of nonstate actors as Entities of Particular Concern (EPC).

The policy update emphasizes the importance of the bipartisan Elie Wiesel Genocide and Atrocities Prevention Act of 2018, signed into law by President Donald Trump. This legislation codifies atrocity prevention efforts and creates legislative mandates to support U.S. government initiatives, including requiring annual reports to Congress and training for diplomats posted in at-risk countries.

Early warning signs of mass atrocities include instability, ideological narratives portraying certain groups as inferior or dangerous, and systematic discrimination and violence against specific groups. Religious freedom violations often serve as critical early indicators, particularly when there is a lack of adequate legislation ensuring freedom of religion or belief, absence of accountability for crimes targeting religious communities, and patterns of religious discrimination.

The report calls for continued prioritization of atrocity prevention through a whole-of-government approach that integrates international religious freedom promotion. It emphasizes that countries with dismal religious freedom records often present some of the greatest national security challenges to the United States.

USCIRF urges the current administration to provide clarity regarding atrocity prevention responsibilities within the State Department and to prioritize resources for delivering atrocity prevention initiatives. The commission emphasizes that promoting religious freedom is a crucial tool not only in preventing atrocities but also in rebuilding societies in their aftermath.