Putin's War in Ukraine May Cost Him Control of the South Caucasus: A Geopolitical Shift in the Making - Faith & Freedom News

The Crossroads of Empires: Understanding the South Caucasus

The South Caucasus region, encompassing Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia, sits at one of the world’s most strategically important crossroads. This area between the Black and Caspian seas has long served as a bridge between Europe and Asia, where the legacies of three great empires—Ottoman, Persian, and Russian—continue to shape modern geopolitics.

For residents of this volatile region, geopolitics isn’t an abstract concept but a daily reality that affects everything from trade routes to family connections. The current transformation of this area represents one of the most significant geopolitical shifts in post-Soviet space, with implications that extend far beyond its borders.

Ukraine’s Unexpected Catalyst: How War Changed Everything

Vladimir Putin’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine has created unintended consequences that are reshaping the South Caucasus in ways Moscow never anticipated. As noted by The Economist, “Mr Putin’s war against Ukraine inadvertently led to an end to the hitherto intractable conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia” (source).

The war in Ukraine has fundamentally altered the balance of power in the South Caucasus by diverting Russian attention and resources away from its traditional sphere of influence. This distraction provided Azerbaijan with an unprecedented opportunity to assert its independence and challenge Russia’s dominance in the region.

Azerbaijan’s Strategic Ascendancy: From Subordinate to Equal

The Nagorno-Karabakh Victory and Its Aftermath

The most dramatic demonstration of this shift occurred in September 2023, when Azerbaijan recaptured all of Nagorno-Karabakh in less than 24 hours. The retaking of Karabakh by Azerbaijan opened the door for the fall of Russian influence in the South Caucasus, fundamentally altering the regional power dynamic.

What made this victory particularly significant was the impotence of Russian peacekeepers, who stood by as Azerbaijan asserted its sovereignty over the disputed territory. This moment marked a clear departure from decades of Russian mediation and control over the conflict.

Building New Alliances: Turkey and Israel as Strategic Partners

Azerbaijan’s growing confidence stems from its strategic partnerships with Turkey and Israel. These relationships provide Baku with military hardware, technological expertise, and diplomatic backing that reduces its dependence on Russian support. Israel views Azerbaijan as a crucial ally in its ongoing conflict with Iran, while Turkey sees the country as a key partner in expanding its influence in the Caucasus.

The military cooperation between these nations has made Azerbaijan, in the words of regional expert Zaur Shiriyev, capable of seeking “to deal with Moscow as an equal, not as a subordinate, thus challenging Russia’s view of the south Caucasus as its playground” (The Economist).

Armenia’s Painful Liberation: Breaking Free from Russian Dependency

The Paradox of Defeat

Armenia’s loss of Nagorno-Karabakh, while devastating for the country emotionally and demographically, has created an unexpected opportunity for strategic reorientation. The exodus of 100,000 ethnic Armenians from the disputed territory represents a humanitarian tragedy, but it has also liberated Armenia from a conflict that had essentially held the country hostage to Russian interests.

For nearly three decades, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict had forced Armenia to maintain closed borders with Turkey, outsource its security to Russia, and allow local clan politics tied to Moscow to dominate its domestic affairs. The resolution of this conflict, painful as it was, has opened new possibilities for Armenian foreign policy.

A Turn Toward Europe

In early 2025, the Armenian parliament adopted a bill aimed at starting the process of joining the European Union – an ultimately hostile step as far as Moscow is concerned. This move represents a fundamental shift in Armenia’s strategic orientation, moving away from Russian dependency toward European integration.

The Armenian government has recognized that continued reliance on Russia carries significant risks, particularly given Moscow’s track record of abandoning its allies when convenient. The country is now actively pursuing closer ties with the European Union while simultaneously working to normalize relations with Turkey.

Russia’s Diminishing Options: The Limits of Influence

The Challenge of Military Intervention

Russia faces a complex strategic dilemma in the South Caucasus. Unlike in other post-Soviet states where Moscow has successfully used military intervention to maintain influence, Azerbaijan’s military capabilities—enhanced by Turkish and Israeli support—make direct confrontation extremely costly.

The country’s oil wealth and strategic partnerships provide it with resources and backing that previous Russian adversaries in the region lacked. This reality forces Moscow to rely more heavily on diplomatic and economic pressure rather than the military intimidation that has proven effective elsewhere.

Armenia: A Reluctant Partner

While Russia maintains a military base in Armenia and the country depends on Russian energy and food imports, popular support for Moscow has plummeted. The perceived betrayal over Nagorno-Karabakh has fundamentally altered Armenian attitudes toward their former protector.

In July 2025, Armenia and Russia signed a new agreement extending the Russian military base lease until 2044, but this arrangement appears to be driven more by Armenian security concerns about regional stability than genuine enthusiasm for Russian partnership.

The Broader Geopolitical Implications

Middle Powers Rising

The South Caucasus transformation illustrates a broader global trend: the rise of middle powers and the relative decline of traditional great powers. Countries like Azerbaijan, backed by regional allies, are increasingly capable of challenging established spheres of influence.

This shift reflects changing dynamics in international relations, where economic partnerships, military cooperation, and strategic alliances can provide smaller nations with the resources needed to assert their independence from traditional dominant powers.

Energy and Strategic Resources

The region’s energy resources play a crucial role in its geopolitical importance. Azerbaijan’s oil and gas exports provide it with economic leverage and strategic value to European partners seeking to diversify their energy supplies away from Russia.

The country’s position as an energy supplier to Europe has been enhanced by the war in Ukraine, as European nations seek alternatives to Russian energy imports. This economic dimension reinforces Azerbaijan’s growing political independence.

Looking Forward: Implications for Regional Stability

The Prospects for Peace

The potential for lasting peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan depends largely on their ability to establish normalized relations without Russian mediation. Both countries are exploring direct diplomatic channels and seeking support from alternative partners—Armenia from Europe, Azerbaijan from Turkey and Israel.

Georgia’s Pivotal Role

While much attention focuses on Armenia and Azerbaijan, Georgia’s role in regional transformation deserves greater consideration. As the most pro-Western of the three South Caucasus states, Georgia could serve as a crucial bridge between the region and European institutions.

The country’s experience with Russian military intervention in 2008 provides important lessons for its neighbors about the costs and benefits of challenging Moscow’s influence. Georgia’s ongoing Euro-Atlantic integration efforts demonstrate that alternative paths to development and security are possible.

Conclusion: A Region in Transition

The South Caucasus stands at a historical turning point. Putin’s war in Ukraine has inadvertently created conditions for a fundamental realignment of regional power structures. Azerbaijan’s emergence as a confident regional actor, Armenia’s gradual pivot toward Europe, and Russia’s diminishing influence represent changes that will likely define the region for decades to come.

These developments reflect broader trends in international relations: the diffusion of power away from traditional great powers, the importance of energy and economic partnerships, and the growing capacity of middle powers to shape their own destinies. The South Caucasus, long considered Russia’s playground, is becoming an arena where multiple powers compete for influence and local actors assert their independence.

The ultimate outcome of this transformation will depend on how successfully Armenia and Azerbaijan can build sustainable peace, whether regional powers can establish stable spheres of cooperation, and how effectively Russia adapts to its diminished role. What seems certain is that the era of unchallenged Russian dominance in the South Caucasus has ended, replaced by a more complex and competitive geopolitical landscape.

Reference: This article draws insights from “Putin’s war in Ukraine may cost him control of the south Caucasus” published in The Economist on July 10, 2025.