In a significant shift in American nuclear policy, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has outlined a bold new approach to arms control that acknowledges the complex realities of a world with multiple nuclear powers. Speaking through a recent Substack article, Secretary Rubio emphasized that the United States will only negotiate from a position of strength while pursuing genuine reductions in global nuclear threats.

The End of an Era: New START Expires

Yesterday marked the expiration of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), bringing to a close a chapter in bilateral arms control between the United States and Russia. While some arms control advocates have expressed concern, the reality is that Russia ceased implementing the treaty in 2023 after flouting its terms for years.

The choice before the United States was clear: bind itself unilaterally to a defunct agreement or recognize that a new era requires a new approach. The Trump administration chose the latter, understanding that the world has fundamentally changed since the Cold War.

A New Strategic Reality: The China Factor

China’s rapid and opaque expansion of its nuclear arsenal has rendered past models of arms control obsolete. Since New START entered into force, China has tripled its nuclear stockpile and is on pace to possess more than 1,000 warheads by 2030. An arms control arrangement that ignores China’s build-up—which Russia is actively supporting—would leave the United States and its allies demonstrably less secure.

President Trump has been clear, consistent, and unequivocal that future arms control must address not one, but both nuclear peer arsenals. The bilateral model that worked during the Cold War simply cannot account for the multipolar nuclear reality of the 21st century.

Three Pillars of the New Approach

Historical Context: Cold War Lessons

During the Cold War, few negotiations proved as complex as those between the United States and the Soviet Union to limit and reduce their vast nuclear arsenals. These agreements required trust between adversaries who had little reason to believe each other’s words, and they relied on intricate, constant verification systems.

American statesmen persevered and reached a series of agreements first with the Soviet Union and then the Russian Federation that left the United States safer. However, everything has its season, and the geopolitical landscape of 2025 bears little resemblance to that of the late 20th century.

Today in Geneva, the United States is taking the first steps into a future where the global nuclear threat is reduced in reality, not merely on paper. The Trump administration has extended an invitation to the world: join America in building a safer, more stable nuclear order that reflects the realities of our time.

This approach combines President Trump’s commitment to peace through strength with a realistic assessment of the modern threat environment. By refusing to bind America to outdated frameworks while remaining open to meaningful negotiations, the administration is charting a course that prioritizes both American security and global stability.