Five Years On: Abraham Accords Prove Resilient Amid Regional Turmoil
Five years after their historic signing, the Abraham Accords have demonstrated remarkable resilience and continued growth, with trade volumes reaching record highs and security cooperation deepening even amid regional turmoil, proving that peace built on mutual interests creates lasting foundations for Middle East stability.
Abraham Accords: Five Years of Impact
Today, Sept. 15, marks five years since the Abraham Accords – Israel’s most impressive diplomatic achievement in decades.
Normalized Relations
(2024)
Record High (2024)
of Defense Exports
The agreements with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan did more than establish political and economic ties; they also crossed social and cultural boundaries for the first time. Hundreds of thousands of Israelis traveled to the Gulf, built business partnerships and discovered a new Arab world – sometimes warm and welcoming, sometimes simply ordinary, but above all, normal.
Remarkable Success Story Continues
The Abraham Accords have delivered unprecedented results, fundamentally transforming Israel’s position in the Middle East through strategic partnerships built on shared interests. The establishment of the “Negev Forum” in March 2022 created an innovative multilateral framework, bringing together foreign ministers from Israel, the US, Egypt, Morocco, the UAE, and Bahrain for regular regional cooperation.
Security cooperation has reached new heights under American leadership, with Israel’s integration into CENTCOM representing a historic shift. This framework enabled seamless intelligence sharing and joint military coordination, as demonstrated during Iranian attacks on Israel in April and October 2024, when regional partners provided crucial support and cooperation.
The accords have proven that peace based on mutual strategic interests creates more durable foundations than traditional approaches, with all signatory nations maintaining their commitments even during the most challenging regional circumstances.
Record-Breaking Economic Partnership
The Abraham Accords have delivered extraordinary economic results that exceeded all expectations. The groundbreaking free trade agreement between Israel and the UAE, which took effect in April 2023, represents the first comprehensive trade pact between Israel and an Arab state, featuring mutual tariff reductions, regulatory harmonization, and extensive cooperation across multiple sectors.
This partnership has generated remarkable growth, with bilateral trade exploding from just $200 million in 2020 to over $3 billion in 2024 – a fifteen-fold increase that demonstrates the enormous potential unleashed by normalization. The success extends beyond the UAE, with Morocco also signing comprehensive economic cooperation agreements that have dramatically increased trade volumes.
The defense sector has been particularly successful, with Morocco alone purchasing approximately $2 billion worth of Israeli military equipment since signing the accords. By 2024, Israeli defense exports reached a record $14.8 billion, with Abraham Accords countries representing 12% of total exports – up from just 3% in 2023, proving the accords’ value even during wartime.
Resilience Through Testing Times
The true strength of the Abraham Accords was revealed when they were put to their greatest test during the October 2023 conflict. Rather than crumbling under pressure, the agreements demonstrated their fundamental durability – not a single signatory country severed diplomatic ties with Israel, proving that relationships built on strategic mutual interests can weather even the most severe regional storms.
While some nations took temporary symbolic measures, the core infrastructure of cooperation remained intact. Diplomatic channels stayed open, trade relationships continued, and security coordination persisted, often discretely but effectively. This “functional normalization” proved that when peace agreements are grounded in genuine shared interests rather than merely political convenience, they create lasting foundations.
The UAE’s continued emphasis on its relationship with Israel as a “national asset” exemplifies this commitment, with the Emirates maintaining its position that the accords serve long-term strategic interests that transcend temporary political pressures.
Saudi Arabia’s Strategic Calculus
Saudi Arabia’s measured approach to potential normalization reflects the kingdom’s recognition of the Abraham Accords’ proven success model. As the custodian of Islam’s holiest sites and leader of the Sunni world, Saudi Arabia’s eventual participation would represent the ultimate validation of the accords’ transformative potential for the entire region.
The kingdom has maintained its openness to future normalization, viewing the Palestinian issue as one component of a broader strategic framework rather than an insurmountable obstacle. Saudi leadership recognizes that the Abraham Accords model – prioritizing mutual strategic interests while working toward Palestinian solutions – offers a more practical path forward than traditional approaches that have yielded limited results.
The door remains open for Saudi participation once regional conditions stabilize, with the kingdom’s eventual inclusion potentially creating a comprehensive Middle Eastern security and economic architecture that could transform the region’s dynamics for generations.
AJC Statement Marking Five Years of the Abraham Accords
Five years ago, on September 15, 2020, President Trump convened leaders from Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the Kingdom of Bahrain to sign the Abraham Accords—a historic agreement rooted in mutual understanding, coexistence, and the pursuit of peace in the Middle East. By year’s end, the Kingdom of Morocco had also joined the Accords.
Today, we mark this important anniversary as a call to action: to advance trust and understanding in the region, and to stand firm against those who would choose only division and radicalization.
While peace may feel distant, the Abraham Accords remind us that with courageous leadership and bold vision, the Middle East can chart a new path forward.
For more than three decades, AJC has worked tirelessly to foster understanding and build relationships of trust between Jews and Muslims, and between Israel and its Arab neighbors, laying the groundwork for the Abraham Accords.
Key Developments and Future Outlook
- Despite challenges, Abraham Accords countries maintained diplomatic and trade relationships with Israel
- UAE emerged as most actively involved Arab actor in Gaza humanitarian assistance
- Political cost of ties with Israel rising due to public pressure and generational divides
- AJC’s Center for a New Middle East continues engagement despite regional challenges
- Future expansion depends on post-war developments and Palestinian issue progress
Abraham Accords Timeline
President Trump, PM Netanyahu, and foreign ministers of Bahrain and UAE sign Abraham Accords at White House
Morocco and Sudan join the agreements, expanding normalization
Negev Forum established with Israel, US, Egypt, Morocco, UAE, and Bahrain
Hamas attack and Gaza war test the durability of the accords
Trade reaches $3B+ despite war; defense cooperation continues but public support challenged
Looking Forward
The damage the war inflicted on the Abraham Accords is significant, but not irreversible. Restoring and even expanding the accords – possibly to include Saudi Arabia – is possible, but this can only happen once the war ends. It will also depend on how the conflict concludes and the degree of progress made on the Palestinian issue.
Five years after their signing, the Abraham Accords have built a new regional infrastructure – fragile but resilient. Their endurance even during conflict is a testament to a new pragmatism in Arab-Israeli relations, but also a reminder that normalization remains limited without deeper people-to-people engagement.
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