This eastward expansion represents more than just diplomatic symbolism—it could signal a new chapter in how Muslim-majority nations engage with Israel and the broader international community.
Understanding the Current Momentum
The conversation around Azerbaijan’s inclusion isn’t entirely new. According to diplomatic insights, Trump’s team had reportedly explored Azerbaijan’s potential participation during the final year of his first presidency. Now, with shifting regional dynamics and evolving geopolitical alliances, these discussions have gained renewed urgency and strategic importance.
As noted in recent analysis by Elnur Enveroglu, “Azerbaijan is uniquely positioned to become a valuable addition to the Abraham Accords”, highlighting the country’s distinct diplomatic positioning in the region.
The timing feels particularly significant given recent Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearings, where lawmakers have emphasized the importance of expanding these diplomatic frameworks. During a recent confirmation hearing, Senator Jacky Rosen, co-chair of the Senate Abraham Accords Caucus, specifically mentioned the potential for Kazakhstan to join the accords, stating her optimism “that the deepening cooperation between the two nations could help set Kazakhstan on a path to join the Abraham Accords.”
Why Azerbaijan Makes Strategic Sense
Unlike many other Muslim-majority countries, Azerbaijan has maintained robust diplomatic and economic ties with Israel for decades. This relationship isn’t merely ceremonial—it’s built on substantial foundations of mutual benefit and shared strategic interests.
The energy sector provides perhaps the clearest example of this cooperation. Azerbaijan serves as one of Israel’s largest oil suppliers, while Israel has provided Baku with advanced defense technologies that proved crucial during the 2020 Second Nagorno-Karabakh War. This practical partnership demonstrates what Enveroglu describes as Azerbaijan already being “a de facto member of the spirit of the Accords.”
What makes Azerbaijan particularly attractive as a potential member is its secular governance structure and pragmatic foreign policy approach. These characteristics align naturally with the Abraham Accords’ goals of regional integration, economic cooperation, and religious tolerance. The country has successfully positioned itself as what analysts call a bridge—between the Islamic world and the West, between Europe and Asia, and between zones of conflict and zones of cooperation.
The Central Asian Connection
The discussion around Azerbaijan’s inclusion becomes even more intriguing when we consider the broader Central Asian context. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan all share similar characteristics that could make them attractive partners in an expanded Abraham Accords framework.
These nations are largely secular states, relatively free from pan-Islamist ideologies, and increasingly focused on economic diversification and infrastructure development. They share strategic interests in countering Iranian influence, integrating with Western markets, and enhancing security cooperation with both Israel and the United States.
During the recent Senate hearing, the potential for Kazakhstan’s inclusion was explicitly discussed. The nominee for ambassador to Kazakhstan acknowledged the country’s mutual interests with Israel in “maintaining security in the region and advancing counterterrorism efforts,” while noting President Tokayev’s expressed desire to “enhance trade and investment ties with Israel and promote cooperation in water resource management.”
Navigating Complex Regional Dynamics
However, the path toward expansion isn’t without significant challenges. The ongoing normalization process between Azerbaijan and Armenia adds layers of complexity to any potential Abraham Accords inclusion. While Azerbaijan’s reconciliation efforts could strengthen its credibility as a regional stabilizer, unresolved dimensions of the conflict might complicate perceptions among certain Middle Eastern audiences.
The Gaza conflict presents perhaps the most significant obstacle to any near-term expansion of the Abraham Accords. As Enveroglu notes in his analysis, “many Muslim-majority states have delayed or frozen normalisation talks until progress is made on the Palestinian issue.” Public support for Palestine runs deep in Azerbaijani society, despite strong official ties with Israel, creating a delicate balance that policymakers must navigate carefully.
Economic and Security Benefits
Despite these challenges, the strategic advantages of Azerbaijan’s inclusion in the Abraham Accords are compelling from multiple perspectives. Economic diversification opportunities through Israeli and Gulf investment in renewable energy, agriculture, and technology could significantly benefit Azerbaijan’s development goals.
Security cooperation represents another major incentive, particularly in areas such as intelligence sharing, air defense systems, and counterterrorism efforts. For a country like Azerbaijan, which faces complex regional security challenges, these partnerships could prove invaluable.
Enhanced energy connectivity also presents exciting possibilities, including potential green electricity exports to Israel through Turkey or other regional corridors. This aligns with global trends toward renewable energy cooperation and could position Azerbaijan as a key player in the emerging green energy economy.
The Broader Vision
The potential eastward expansion of the Abraham Accords reflects a broader vision of regional cooperation that transcends traditional geographical and cultural boundaries. As discussed in recent diplomatic forums, this expansion could spark cross-regional trade, boost investment in renewable energy projects, and facilitate joint security initiatives including counterterrorism and cyber defense cooperation.
This vision also serves strategic purposes in constraining Iranian influence, particularly along critical North-South and East-West energy corridors. By expanding the network of countries cooperating with Israel, the Accords could signal that such cooperation is no longer taboo, even in traditionally hesitant regions.
Looking Ahead: Conditions for Success
For Azerbaijan’s inclusion to become reality, several conditions likely need to be met. Progress on the Gaza conflict remains crucial, as continued civilian suffering and asymmetric warfare complicate the political calculus for any Muslim-majority country considering formal ties with Israel.
Additionally, successful peace negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia could strengthen Baku’s credibility as a constructive regional actor. Paradoxically, normalization on both fronts—with Armenia and with Israel—could position Azerbaijan as a model for broader regional peacebuilding efforts.
As Enveroglu concludes in his analysis, “For the Accords to evolve into a sustainable and inclusive regional pact, Israel must do its part by reducing civilian suffering, upholding international law, and engaging sincerely in dialogue with Palestinians.”
The Path Forward
The prospect of Azerbaijan joining the Abraham Accords represents more than just another diplomatic agreement—it symbolizes the potential for modern diplomacy where pragmatic interests align with enduring principles. If managed carefully, such an expansion could validate Azerbaijan’s multivector foreign policy while accelerating economic growth, cementing security alliances, and promoting regional stability.
The recent Senate discussions around Kazakhstan’s potential inclusion suggest that U.S. policymakers are serious about exploring these possibilities. As one diplomatic source noted, the goal is for the United States to become the “chosen partner” for these Central Asian nations, competing effectively with China’s growing influence in the region.
Whether this vision becomes reality will depend on numerous factors, including regional stability, progress on existing conflicts, and the political will of all parties involved. However, the strategic logic underlying eastward expansion appears increasingly compelling as regional dynamics continue to evolve.
The Abraham Accords began as a bold experiment in Middle Eastern diplomacy. Their potential expansion eastward could represent the next chapter in reshaping how nations across different regions cooperate, compete, and coexist in an increasingly interconnected world.
Sources:
Senate Foreign Relations Committee Hearing Transcript
Elnur Enveroglu’s analysis on Azerbaijan and the Abraham Accords
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