Armenia and Azerbaijan May Join Abraham Accords in Historic Expansion

The Abraham Accords could be on the verge of their most significant expansion since inception, with Armenia and Azerbaijan emerging as potential new members in what would mark a historic shift from a Middle East-focused framework to a broader Eurasian peace initiative.

A Historic Expansion Beyond the Middle East

The Abraham Accords, initially designed to normalize relations between Israel and Arab nations, are experiencing unprecedented momentum for expansion under President Trump’s administration. Since March 2025, influential Republican think tanks, pro-Israeli advocacy groups, and regional policy experts have been championing the inclusion of both Armenia and Azerbaijan in this groundbreaking diplomatic framework.

This potential expansion represents more than just adding new signatories—it signals a fundamental evolution of the Accords from a regional Middle Eastern initiative to a global peace architecture that could reshape diplomatic relations across continents.

The Foundation: Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Progress

The historic expansion possibility emerged following Armenia and Azerbaijan’s announcement in March 2025 of a finalized draft peace agreement aimed at ending decades of conflict. While challenges remain, particularly regarding the proposed “Zangezur Corridor” through Armenia’s southern Syunik province, the progress represents a diplomatic breakthrough that few predicted just years ago.

According to George Meneshian’s analysis in European Interest, “Armenia’s foreign policy has shifted dramatically” since its 2020 defeat in the Second Nagorno Karabakh War. This shift has created unprecedented opportunities for regional integration and peace-building that extend far beyond bilateral relations.

Why This Expansion Matters Now

Trump Administration’s Strategic Vision

The Trump administration appears increasingly committed to resolving the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict as part of a broader strategy to expand American influence in the South Caucasus. Reports indicate the U.S. has proposed involving American businesses in developing the transport corridor connecting Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan through southern Armenia, offering security assurances modeled on successful precedents like the Ukraine rare earths deal.

U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff recently suggested in an interview that both Armenia and Azerbaijan might join the Abraham Accords, marking the first official acknowledgment of this historic possibility from the administration.

A New Definition of Peace

The Abraham Accords framework has evolved significantly since 2020. The U.S. State Department now describes the initiative as seeking to “promote interfaith and intercultural dialogue to advance a culture of peace among the three Abrahamic religions and all humanity.” This expanded definition opens the door for Christian-majority nations like Armenia to participate alongside Muslim-majority Azerbaijan.

Breaking Down Historical Barriers

Armenia’s Diplomatic Pivot

Armenia’s potential Abraham Accords membership would represent a remarkable transformation. The country is actively pursuing:

Strategic realignment away from Russian dependence
Deeper integration with European Union and United States
Diversification of defense partnerships beyond traditional suppliers
Reduced reliance on Iran and Georgia for critical trade routes

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s historic visit to Turkey in late June, where he met with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, exemplifies this dramatic shift in regional dynamics and Armenia’s openness to new partnerships.

Azerbaijan’s Strategic Positioning

Azerbaijan’s potential membership builds on its existing strong relationship with Israel, encompassing extensive cooperation in energy, security, and intelligence sectors. For Baku, Abraham Accords membership would:

Consolidate its partnership with Israel and strengthen U.S. alignment
Provide leverage in ongoing competition with Iran and Russia
Enhance its international profile as a reliable transit hub
Support its core energy and connectivity strategy ambitions

Overcoming Complex Challenges

Israeli-Armenian Relations

Armenia’s relationship with Israel remains complicated due to Israel’s weapons sales to Azerbaijan during the 2020 Nagorno Karabakh War. Armenia’s formal recognition of Palestine in June 2024 further reflected these diplomatic tensions.

However, both nations maintain formal recognition of Israel, creating a foundation for engagement. More importantly, the Abraham Accords now emphasize regional integration, economic cooperation, and geopolitical alignment rather than just normalization.

The Broader Strategic Context

The potential expansion aligns with major infrastructure initiatives like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). The South Caucasus is emerging as a strategic bridge connecting Europe, Central Asia, and the Middle East, making Armenia and Azerbaijan’s participation valuable for expanding the Accords’ geographic and economic reach.

Historic Benefits for All Stakeholders

For Armenia: A Path to Western Integration

Improved relations with Israel and deeper U.S. ties
Accelerated shift away from Russian and Iranian influence
Enhanced economic integration with Western markets and Middle East
Counterbalance to growing Turkish regional influence
Access to new security cooperation frameworks

For Azerbaijan: Strengthened Strategic Partnerships

Consolidated partnership with Israel and stronger U.S. alignment
Increased leverage against Iranian and Russian regional influence
Enhanced international profile as a key transit hub
Support for becoming a major energy corridor between continents

For the United States: A Major Foreign Policy Achievement

Significant diplomatic success early in Trump’s second term
Increased influence in critical Eurasian energy and transit corridors
Strategic positioning to counter China’s Belt and Road initiatives
Resolution of a persistent regional conflict threatening stability

For Israel: Expanded Diplomatic Horizons

Enhanced outreach beyond traditional Arab normalization
Increased influence in regions traditionally dominated by Russia and Iran
New channels for security cooperation and energy diplomacy
Strategic positioning across Central Asia and the Caucasus

The Road Ahead: Building a New Architecture

As Meneshian concludes in his European Interest analysis, “The potential inclusion of Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Abraham Accords would mark a significant evolution of the initiative, shifting it from a framework focused primarily on Arab-Israeli normalization to one that reshapes regional dynamics across the broader Eurasian landscape.”

This historic expansion could create a new geopolitical architecture linking Europe, the Middle East, and Central Asia under U.S.-backed diplomacy, fundamentally altering regional power dynamics and creating new opportunities for peace, prosperity, and cooperation.

What’s Next?

While negotiations continue and challenges remain, the momentum behind this historic expansion is undeniable. The success of Armenia and Azerbaijan joining the Abraham Accords would demonstrate that peace frameworks can transcend traditional geographic and cultural boundaries, offering hope for similar initiatives worldwide.

The coming months will be crucial in determining whether this historic expansion becomes reality, potentially marking the Abraham Accords’ transformation from a Middle Eastern peace initiative to a global model for diplomatic cooperation and regional integration.