The fourth quarter of 2025 delivered one of the most consequential periods of growth for the Abraham Accords since the historic peace agreements were brokered by President Trump in 2020. Trade between Israel and every one of its Accords partners increased in Q4, driven by deepening diplomatic ties, landmark energy and defense deals, and a dramatic surge in cross-border technology investment. New data released by The Heritage Foundation — tracking the bilateral trade figures published by Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics — puts flesh on the bones of a peace framework that continues to confound its critics.

The quarter opened with a Gaza ceasefire brokered by President Trump, creating the conditions for renewed regional cooperation. It closed with Kazakhstan formally acceding to the Accords in November — the first formal expansion since Trump’s first term — and with Israel establishing diplomatic relations with Somaliland in December. The full Q4 2025 Abraham Accords Report from The Heritage Foundation provides comprehensive analysis of these developments.

A Quarter of Historic Milestones

From Treaties to Architecture

Robert Greenway, who authored the Heritage Foundation’s quarterly overview, frames the Q4 data as evidence that the Accords have evolved well beyond their origins as bilateral normalization treaties. The integration of the Accords into multilateral frameworks — including IMEC’s India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor and the AI-focused Pax Silica initiative — means that the agreements are now embedded in the broader architecture of American economic and technological leadership in the region, serving as a deliberate counterweight to Chinese-dominated frameworks.

The newly established Board of Peace, created by President Trump, is expected to play a facilitating role in advancing joint projects involving the United States, Israel, and Arab and Muslim partners. Heritage analysts argue that the coming months will be critical for both bilateral normalization — pushing Saudi Arabia, among others, toward formal Accords membership — and the deepening of American-led multilateral engagement across the MENA region.

Reading the Numbers

The country-by-country data reveals a nuanced picture. Jordan’s 34% annual growth in trade with Israel is the standout story of 2025 as a whole, reflecting deepening economic integration between two countries that have maintained a peace treaty since 1994 but whose economic relationship has been transformed by the Accords framework. Morocco’s 65% surge in Q4 trade alone speaks to accelerating normalisation. The UAE, while posting a marginal 1% annual decline, remains by far the largest trading partner — sustaining over $3.2 billion in annual bilateral trade despite regional headwinds — and its December month was up 32% year-on-year.

Bahrain’s figures require context: an 80% annual decline reflects an unusual spike in 2024 from which 2025 comparisons are unflattering, while the 1,300% Q4 jump signals a significant resumption of activity. Egypt’s modest 3% Q4 growth, despite a small annual dip, is buoyed by its central role in the $36 billion natural gas agreement — a deal whose full economic weight will be felt in years ahead.

Full trade data, interactive visualisations, and the complete Q4 2025 Abraham Accords Report are available at Heritage Foundation’s Abraham Accords Trade tracker and in the Q4 2025 PDF Report. Data sourced from the State of Israel Central Bureau of Statistics Foreign Trade Statistics Monthly.